Punch-A-Bunch: A 3-Act Math Lesson on Probability

Welcome back math geeks!  I need your help making a lesson better.
I love Price is Right because many of the games require contestants to make predictions.  This often involves estimating prices of products.  But sometimes contestants have to make choices of a different nature, and these choices are ripe opportunities to think about probability and expected value.  And I love when a fruitful 3-Act Math opportunity presents itself.  (I’ve written about one before here.)

The example I want to share now doesn’t seem to fit a 3-Act format.  Maybe that’s because it’s not truly a 3-Act Math lesson.  But I don’t know what else to call it.  I’m curious about your thoughts on how to make it better. 

Some questions I’m asking: 

Is it too clunky? 
What grade levels will find this lesson useful? 
What concepts/standards does it best target? 
What opportunities did I miss? 
What extensions can be made?

I’m inviting your feedback in the comment section.  Thanks for helping me get better!